A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Each composes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
